第十一讲国家风险评估及管理

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1、单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,第十一,讲,讲 国,家,家风险,评,评估及,管,管理,Chapter Objectives,Toidentifythecommon factorsused by MNCstomeasurea country,spoliticalriskandfinancial risk;,Toexplain thetechniques usedtomeasurecountry risk;and,Toexplain howMNCs usetheassessmentofcountry riskwhenmakingfinanci

2、al decisions.,WhyCountryRisk Analysis Is Important,.DefinitionofPolitical risk,istheriskthat thebusinessenvironmentina hostcountrywill changeunexpectedlyoristhepotentiallyadverse impactofa country,senvironmentonanMNC,scash flows(国,家,家风险,指,指东道,国,国的商,业,业环境,发,发生非,预,预期的,变,变化，,从,从而对,跨,跨国公,司,司的价,值,值产生,影,影

3、响。,）,）,2.SomeAdverse Impacts:,a.A terroristattack,b.A major labor strikeinanindustry,c.A politicalcrisisdue to ascandalwithinacountry,d.Concern about acountrys bankingsystemthat maycausea major outflowoffunds,e.Theimpositionoftraderestrictionsonimports,.Countryriskanalysiscanbeused:,tomonitor countr

4、ieswheretheMNC is currentlydoingbusiness;,asa screeningdevicetoavoidconductingbusinessincountrieswithexcessiverisk;and,toreviseits investmentorfinancing decisionsinlightofrecentevents.,WhyCountryRisk Analysis Is Important,thecompanies thatassess countryrisk.,Politicalrisk（政治,风,风险）,istheriskthat asov

5、ereign hostgovernmentwill unexpectedlychangethe rules of thegame under which businessesoperate,Politicalrisks,arisebecause of unexpectedchangesinthepolitical environment withina hostcountryorintherelationship of ahostcountry to anothercountry.,Financialrisk（财务,风,风险）,refersmoregenerallytounexpectedev

6、entsinacountrysfinancial,economic,orbusinesslife,Financialrisk,isdetermined by ahostoffinancialand economic factors,someofwhichare relatedtolocalpolitical risk.,PoliticalRiskFactors,A.Attitudeofconsumersinthe hostcountry,Some consumersareveryloyaltolocally manufacturedproducts.,B.Actionsof host gove

7、rnment,The host governmentmay imposespecial requirements ortaxes,restrictfundtransfers,andsubsidizelocal firms.MNCs can also behurtby alackof restrictions,such asfailure to enforcecopyrightlaws.,PoliticalRiskFactors,C.Blockage ofFundTransfers,Fundsthatareblocked may notbe optimally used.,If fund tra

8、nsfers are blocked,subsidiaries will have to undertake projectsthatmaynot be optimalfor the MNC.,D.CurrencyInconvertibility,The MNC parentmay need to exchangeearningsfor goodsif the foreigncurrency cannotbe changed into other currencies,E.War,Internal and external battles,or even the threatof war,ca

9、n have devastating effects.,The 2003 War inIraq,F.Bureaucracy(,官,官僚）,Bureaucracy cancomplicate businesses.,G.Corruption（腐,败,败）,Corruptioncanincrease the cost ofconducting businessor reducerevenue.,PoliticalRiskFactors,CorruptionPerceptions Index,The index,which ispublishedby TransparencyInternationa

10、l,reflectsthe degreeto whichcorruptionis perceived to exist among publicofficialsandpoliticians.,In 2001,91countriesare rankedona clean score of 10.,RankCountryScore,1Finland9.9,3NewZealand9.4,4Singapore9.2,7Canada8.9,13U.K.8.3,14Hong Kong7.9,16Israel7.6,16U.S.A.7.6,18Chile7.5,20Germany7.4,21Japan7.

11、1,RankCountryScore,23France6.7,26Botswana6.0,27Taiwan5.9,38South Africa4.8,42South Korea4.2,46Brazil4.0,51Mexico3.7,57Argentina3.5,57China3.5,79Russia2.3,88Indonesia1.9,CorruptionIndex Ratingsfor Selected Countries,Maximum rating=10.Highratings indicate low corruption.,Online Application,FinancialRi

12、skFactors,A.CurrentandPotentialStateof the Country,s Economy,A recession canseverelyreduce demand.,Financialdistress can also cause the government to restrictMNCoperations.,B.Indicators of EconomicGrowth,A countrys economicgrowth isdependenton several financial factors-interestrates,exchange rates,i

13、nflation,etc.,Examples of political risks,Expropriation risk（征,用,用风险）,Assets have been expropriated after revolutionsin Iran and Chile.,Disruptions inoperations,（,（经营中断,风,风险）,-changesin laws orregulations.much more commonthanexpropriationand can happenevenin peacetime.,Protectionism（贸,易,易保护主义,风,风险）,

14、-e.g.,“buy American.”Protectionism can affect localconsumption.,Blocked funds（资,金,金转移风险,）,）,-funds that cannotbe immediatelyremitted to theparent company.,Lossof intellectualpropertyrights（知识产,权,权风险）,-particularlyproblematic indevelopingandtransitional economies such asChina andtheformer states of t

15、heSoviet Union.,Examples of financial risks,Currency risk,Interest rate risk,Inflationrisk,Unexpectedchanges in thecurrent account balance,Unexpectedchanges in thebalance of trade,PoliticalRiskServices,International Country Risk Guide,（国际国家,风,风险指南）,includes the following assessmentsin their financia

16、l risk index.,Loandefaults or loan restructurings,Payment delays,Cancellations of contracts bya host government,Losses from exchangecontrols,Expropriation of privateinvestments,Whatare the political and financial outlookfor various countries?,Online Application,Referto the CIAs WorldFactbook athttp:/www.odci.gov/.,Visithttp:/ Country Risk Assessment,.Macroassessment ofCountry Risk,Macrorisksaffect allfirms ina host country(指在东道国,整,整个国家范,围,围内发生的,影,影响到所有,企,企业的风险,，,，如东道国,的,的财政和货,币,币政策、银,行,行系统、税,率,率