互联网战略管理

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1、SLIDE TITLE,Body Text,First Level,second level,third level,Quotation Level,-,15,-,RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm,STRATEGY AND THE INTERNET: TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS,Real Tech Conference,,Peter Stanger,E-COMMERCEIS DEAD,“E-Commerce IsDead,LongLiveE-Commerce”,The Industry Standard, April 2000,“Going,

2、Going,Gone:Business-to-Consumer Sector Goes Bust”,F, April 2000,“Canyou builda brand onlineselling third-partygoods? Theanswer isno,eventhough everyoneusedto thinkthe answerwasyes”,Bryan Rutbert,Warburg Dillon Read,“The living dead havegottenaway with murder because the public markets havefundedrisk

3、ier ventures. Look at A - ifcouldbe thebiggestlivingdead the public markets have everseen.”,WarrenPackard, Draper Fisher Jurvetson,TOM SIEBELCEO, Siebel Systems,“If youcan’tgenerate profits, significant market shareand customersatisfaction,you reout ofbusiness.”,,“On theB2B exchangeside, Idon’tthin

4、k anyone will survive.They are all gone.”,THE CAPITAL MARKETS HAD IT ALL WRONG,Travelocity,B,Expedia,D,E,Priceline,eBay,Amazon,$123B,Webvan,eBay,Amazon,All Other,$11.4B,IS THEREVOLUTION OVER?,July 28, 1794,THE BUMPY RIDEOF ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS,1860 -1890,1895 -1925,FUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORK,120

5、,100,80,40,60,20,0,1770,1780,1775,Index,Workers per bushel of manufactured cotton,England 1770-83,Price of the Model T touring car,1908-20,1910,1915,1920,1985,1990,1995,Price of CPU,computing power,$/,MIPS,1982-95,Lower processing costs ...,… with increased throughput ...,Fiber capacity,Time,10,5,0

6、,10,4,10,3,10,2,… and powerful network economics,,,0,20,40,60,80,100,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,n,Value increases as the square of connections,,,,Profit,Loss,,Value,Cost,,0,,2v,,6v,,12v,,20v,,30v,,42v,,56v,,72v,,90v,,n(n-1)v,,F+0,,F+ 2c,,F+ 3c,,F+ 4c,,F+ 5c,,F+ 6c,,F+ 7c,,F+ 8c,,F+ 9c,,F+ 10c,,F+,nc,,,V

7、alue, cost,,Connections,Cost increases linearly with connections,… lower storage costs ...,$/MB,Average,HD size,in PC at,retail,(GB),Harddrive,size,(GB),Cost ($/MB),,LONG DISTANCE,,,,,,,,Wholesale (Network),Design/build,Operations/maintenance,Resale/interconnection,Retail,Sales/marketing,Accountma

8、nagement,Billing,,,,,,Retail,Sales/marketing,Accountmanagement,Billing,Network,Design/build,Operations/maintenance,Resale/interconnection,Retail,Retail,Networkintelligence,Value added services,,,,Wholesale service creation,Networkintelligence,Value added services,Networkmanagement/dispatch,Wholesale

9、,,,,,,,,,PHARMACEUTICALS,,,,,,,Research,Development,Trials,Registration,Manufac-,turing,Sales &marketing,,Increased developmentcosts,Role ofblockbustersincreasingQuality outsourcers available,Easiercoordination,1980s,1990s,,,,Research,Development,Trials,Registration,Manufac-,turing,Sales& marketin

10、g,,Academic labs,,,,Biotech firms,,,,Contract researchorganizations,,Contractmfrs,,,,PBMs,JVs/,licensing,ELECTRIC UTILITIES,COMPUTER INDUSTRY,AT&T,MCI and Sprint,,… fragmentedradically,Microprocessors,integrated circuits, memory chips,Computers,Operating systems,Applicationssoftware,Marketing, sale

11、s,and distribution,Commonstandards,Time based competition,,,,,,1995,,,,,,,,,,,,,Intel,Motorola,,AMD,Cyrix,Compaq,Dell,Apple,Packard Bell,IBM,DOS and Windows,UNIX,Mac OS,,OS/2,Microsoft Office,,WordPerfect,,Others,Retail,Superstores,On-line,,Mail order,,NeXt,IBM ,Digital,1997,,,Primary,fuel,Power,gen

12、eration,Trading,Distribution,Backward integration toreducerisk,,Forward integration to open supply channels,Scalethrough focusing on hugepowerplants,Synergy through bundlingcapabilities of generaltrading andenergy business,New servicesfor the customer,,,,,,,,,,,,Ruhrkohle,Mobil,BP,Shell,National Pow

13、er,(UK),Electrobel,(Belgium),RWE (Germany),NorskKraftmegling(Norway),Enron,UnitedUtilities,(UK),South-,ern,Water,Eastern Elect-ricity (UK),Stadt-,werke,Munch-,en (Ger-,many),1990,1995,1985,1990,,Statkraft,(Norway),,Oslo Energi(Norway),,EVO (Germany),,IVO,(Finland),MANY INDUSTRIES EXPERIENCING AREDEF

14、INITION OF COMPETITIVE BOUNDARIES,MASSIVE REDISTRIBUTION OF THEMARGINPOOLIS OCCURING,Digital Photography Example,Camera,Film,Equipment,Paper,chemicals,Photo-finisher,Reprint/ enlarge,Store/display,Sharewith others,Processing,Analogvaluechain,–,– Kodak andFujidominate,,Majorplayers (2000 U.S.market s

15、hare),Canon,Nikon,Olympus,Minolta,Kodak,Fuji,Kodak(66%),Fuji,Kodak(Qualex) (~40%),Fuji,Photohuts,Albummanufacturers,Framemanufacturers,Mail services,,disposables,Camera,Manipulation,Crop,Alter pixels,Printer,Paper, ink,Reprint/ enlarge,Store/,display,Share with others,Processing (at home),Digital va

16、lue chain – HP, Sony and others well-positioned,Major players (2000 U.S. market share),Sony (35%),HP (19%),Olympus (13%),Kodak (12%),HP (70%),Lexmark,Epson,HP,Lexmark,Epson,Kodak,PC,IBM microdrive,Sony,Compact Flash,E-mail posting,Personal Web site,Zing,Shutterfly,Snapfish,Ofoto,Others,Adobe (Photos

17、hop),Standard with camera and available free online,EXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN ONLINE RETAILINGCONTINUES,65.1,17.8,Source: TheStateof Online Retailing 2.0,3.0 and 4.0, Shop.org surveysconducted by TheBostonConsultingGroup;SEC filings; Media Metrix,and Harris Interactive data; industry association reports;

18、analystreports,Note:Excludes financialbrokerage,11.5,15.2,NorthAmerican,Business-to-,Consumer,Revenues ($B),20.6,+132%,+66%,+46%,26.7,44.5,Onlinechannel >10% share in severalcategories,CATALOGUERSARE WINNING,EBIT Marginin % of Revenues,1999,2000,Source:TheStateofOnlineRetailing2.0,3.0,4.0;Shop.orgSu

19、rveysconductedbyTheBostonConsultingGroup,ADVANTAGEINCUMBENTS,Online,Retailing,Ds,,,,,Marketplaces,,,,,,CLECs,Cataloguers,,,,,GE,Big3,,,,,,ILECs/IXCs,B2B,Telecom,RENAISSANCEOFTHEFUNDAMENTALS,IPO value,,,,Cash flow,,,,Growth = value,,,Profitable growth = value,,,,Customer acquisition,,Segmentation,,In

20、ternet time,Competitive advantage,,THEVASTMAJORITY OFCHANGEANDTRANSFORMATIONLIESAHEAD,Illustrativeview oftransforming forces, Circa2010,Technology,),Globalization,Deregulation,Electronic,commerce,Source:BCGanalysis,Deregulation,and,globalization,index,(1999=100),Technology and,electronic,commerceind

21、ex,(1999=100),A PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIESINREALESTATE:LEVERAGEYOUR ASSETS!,Assetturns,(sales/ assets),Cash flowmargin in %ofsales,(%),Retail,ConstructionMachinery,Automobile,Chemicals,Utilities,Real Estate,Airline,Auto parts,Aerospace,Telecom,Source: BCGAnalysis,A PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIESINREALESTATE:LEVERAGEYOUR ASSETS!,Access,Fibre,Wireless,Satellite,,,,,Assetproductivity,focus,e-Procurement,e-Sales,,,,,,,Marginfocus,OpportunitySpace,Source: BCGAnalysis,