某咨询－化学行业分析报告

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1、0,I,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Click to edit Master title style,Noordwijk,October 4,2004,Prof.Roland Berger,Chairman,Roland Berger Strategy Consultants,EU enlargement,newopportunitiesfor the chemical industry,The changing face ofEurope,Challengesandopportu

2、nities of enlargement for EU15,Opportunities for EU,15,chemical players inCEE and CIS,Conclusion,Contents,A.,The changing face ofEurope,%ofEU 25,France,Germany,Italy and Benelux:Six wealthy core countries start economic integration process in1957,1.1,EU 6(1957),*,*2003 data,Europescorecountrieshadsl

3、uggish growthoverthelastten years:Average growth1.3%p.a.in Germany,1.7%in France,2.5%Netherlands,GDP/capita USD,28,608,118.0%,75.5%,%ofUS,Population m,227,50.0%,78.0%,GDP USD bn,6,494,58.9%,59.0%,Denmark,Ireland andtheUnited Kingdom:Firstacces-sion round after 16 years increases economic power,1.2,E

4、U 9(1973)*,*2003 data,Asa result of EUintegration,Irelands economic growth has been out-standingly high over the past tenyears:7.6%p.a.(DK 2.1%,UK2.8%),Population m,297,65.0%,102.0%,GDP/capita USD,29,141,120.2%,76.9%,GDP USD bn,8,655,78.5%,78.8%,%ofEU 25,%ofUS,Greece:A poorer country joins the Europ

5、eanUnion in1981,first discussionsaboutdilution,1.3,EU 10(1981)*,*2003 data,Greece now has high averagegrowth rates(3.8%p.a.from 1995-2004),partly due toEuropeanmoneyfromstructural/regional funds,GDP USD bn,8,827,80.0%,80.3%,Population m,308,67.7%,106.2%,GDP/capita USD,28,659,118.3%,75.6%,%ofEU 25,%o

6、fUS,SpainandPortugal:Accessionof two less developed southern countries reducesEUsaverage wealth,1.4,EU12(1986)*,*2003data,Today,thesoutherncountriescontributetoEUgrowth:Spain(3.3%p.a.since1995)andPortugal(2.4%p.a.)achievedhighaveragegrowthrates,GDPUSDbn,9,816,89.0%,89.3%,Population m,359,78.9%,123.0

7、%,112.8%,72.2%,GDP/capita USD,27,343,%ofEU25,%ofUS,Sweden,FinlandandAustria:EuropesnorthernenlargementpushesuptheaverageGDPpercapita,1.5,EU15(1995)*,*2003data,StimulustoEUgrowthoverthepasttenyears:Finlandseconomygrew3.5%p.a.onaverage,Swedens2.7%p.a.,andAustrias2.0%p.a.,GDPUSDbn,10,534,95.5%,95.9%,Po

8、pulation m,381,83.7%,130.5%,GDP/capita USD,27,648,114.1%,73.0%,%ofEU25,%ofUS,GDP USD bn,11,028,100.4%,Population m,455,156.0%,EasternEurope,MaltaandCyprus:ThebiggestroundofenlargementeverchangesthefaceofEurope,1.2,EU25(2004),*,*2003data,GDPgrowthratesofupto6.5%p.a.inCEE(average4.4%p.a.since95),But:E

9、nlargementisabigchallengeforEurope,an,Uniontocreatewealth,GDP/capita USD,24,237,64.0%,%ofUS,50yearsofenlargement:ComparedtotheUS,theEUhasgainedsizeattheexpenseofaveragewealth,Today,EuropesGDPpercapitaisonlyabouttwo-thirdsthatoftheUS,intermsoftotalGDP,botheconomiesarenowcomparable,EUvs.US*,US=100%,59

10、.0,77.5,80.3,89.3,95.9,100.4,78.0,102.0,106.2,123.8,130.5,156.0,75.5,76.9,75.6,72.2,73.0,64.0,1957,EU6,1973,EU9,1981,EU10,1986,EU12,1995,EU15,2004,EU25,GDP,Inhabitants,GDPpercapita,US=100,*basedon2003data,1.3,Wealthgap:Tenyearsago,thenorthoftheEuropeanUnionwasrichandthesouthwaspoor,2.1,Southgainedwe

11、althin,EU:From,34.4%ofEU-9(1986)to59.8%today,1995:Gapbetweennorthandsouth*,1995,*2003 data,*EU 12*Portugal,Spain,Greece,GDPUSDbn,Unemployment%,Populationm,SOUTH*,NORTH*,1,161,9,373,13.4,9.2,62,319,RATIO,9:1,GDPpercapitaUSD,18,726,29,383,3:2,2:3,5:1,7,429,27,620,4:1,Today,thegapis between eastandwest

12、,GDP per capita intheEU15 is four timeshigherthaninEU 10,2.2,2004:Gap between east and west,EU support willhelpEU10 e,conomic,developmentto reachEU15 wealth,2003,EU 10,EU 15,493,10,534,10.5,8.5,74,381,RATIO,21:1,4:5,5:1,GDPUSDbn,Unemployment%,Populationm,GDPpercapitaUSD,EU 25 vs.USvs.Asia:EnlargedEU

13、is astill powerful,buttheslowestgrowingeconomic regionintheworld,3.,Opportunity:Ten new states give the EU momentum to increase growth,ECONOMICPOWER,GDP,USD bn,Comparativeindicators 2003,POPULATION m,WEALTH GDPpercapita,USD,GROWTHavg.GDP growth1999-2003,%,10,988,290,3.3,11,028,455,2.3,US,EU 25,ASIA*

14、,*,Aggregated dataforJapan,China,ASEAN,8,458,1,947,4.8,37,890,24,237,12,058,B.,Challenges and opportunitiesofenlargementforEU 15,Eastwardenlargemententailsthreatsandopportunitiesforeconomies,companies,and governments,Economies,Unitlabor costadvantages in EU10,challenge existing valuecreation structu

15、resinEU 15,but also offer,momentumforstructuralchange/innovationin EU 15,Companies,Competition,in EU 15aswellasin EU 10,is increasing,but alsonew,sales,investment,growth and relocationopportunities,forEU 15 companiesin Eastern Europe,Governments,Existing,institutional setupsinEU 15 are challenged,by

16、 lowertaxes/contributions and higher flexibility inEU10,butalso,momentumforpolitical change,Effects ofenlargement,on,macroeconomic,and,microeconomic levels,Macroeconomic threats:PressureonEU 15 labormarketsandcompetitionforbestinstitutional setup,Lowwage-competition/unemploymentthreats,Migration,(upto,3.8m,people fromCEEwillmove totheEU15),Offshoring,(e.g.,830,000people,in CEE employedby German firmsin 2004),Lowtax/socialcontributions competition,Also:,Lessregulation,(e.g.IMD bureaucracy index:E